By Angel Sun
It seemed that the COVID era had ended in 2022. Yet, countries like the United States, Japan and India have recently resumed travel restrictions for incoming Chinese tourists, including mandatory tests and quarantine periods. The new year has come, but history is repeating itself.
So, what is happening in China?
By December 2022, China’s stringent “Zero COVID” policy had led to numerous tragedies. Patients were dying because of the lack of care and delayed treatment they received in hospitals during a two-month lockdown in Shanghai. In September, a fatal car crash happened outside Guiyang when a bus transporting 45 close contacts of COVID patients for quarantine in neighbouring cities rolled into a ditch, killing 27 people, following the local government’s attempt to clear COVID cases. Millions of Chinese people have been separated from their loved ones and bombarded with devastating news since 2020, not to mention taking daily PCR tests and frequent lockdowns. Criticism towards the government kept growing despite the country’s media censorship and control of expression.
"The largest protests in China since 1989"
On 24 November 2022, a fire in Urumqi not only took at least 10 lives, but also ignited the public’s frustration to its peak. The fire took place in an apartment building, the doors of which had been locked from the outside to prevent residents from leaving their homes during lockdown. They were then trapped inside when the fire broke out. To make matters worse, the nearest fire truck was too far to reach the blaze due to the lockdown restrictions at street level. This catastrophe fuelled the largest protests in China since 1989, which threatened the ruling power of the Communist Party. Holding pieces of blank paper which symbolised demands they were not allowed to express, protesters called for the end of the “Zero COVID” policy and for President Xi to step down.
Furthermore, the rigorous “Zero COVID” policy has severely damaged China’s economy. The official data shows that the country’s latest GDP growth is 3.9%, much lower than the pre-COVID level, and that the youth unemployment rate reached an alarming 18.2% in April 2022, but the actual figures may be even worse. This array of evidence contradicts Xi’s goals to strengthen his authority and achieve common prosperity, which were highlighted in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October. The socio-economic turbulence and mounting pressure as the rest of the world has witnessed economic growth after lifting lockdown restrictions, signalled the acute need for the government to change its COVID policy.
On 6 December, China’s National Health Commission declared a policy U-turn. Under the 10-point directive, patients and their close contacts can quarantine at home rather than the centralised quarantine facilities. Testing and health code requirements for transportation have been lifted, and negative test results are only required for some institutions like schools and hospitals. These rules mean that people in China are no longer locked down and can freely travel across China.
Early online reaction to the changes appeared positive. Some posts on Weibo expressed hope of a new start, but this optimism was overwhelmed by fear just two days after the announcement. In China's capital, Beijing, hospitals and clinics were flooded with masses of COVID patients. Up to 80% of the staff in some hospitals were infected with the virus, but were still required to work due to a shortage of manpower. Doctors and local media advised patients to stay at home instead of seeking medical help. The mess was quickly spread to other provinces. Pharmacies’ shelves of fever-reducing medicine and test kits were emptied, and rationing of ibuprofen and paracetamol began. Devastating photos showing dead bodies piling up in morgues circulated on social media, as restaurants and streets went quiet, and Shanghai’s schools resumed online teaching, despite the new policies. On 14 December, China’s National Health Commission announced that it would stop recording and publishing asymptomatic cases in their daily tallies because it was impossible to track the spread of pandemic.
The desperate situation may last for quite some time. According to the harrowing predictions of Airfinity, daily cases in China are likely to reach their peak in early March 2023 at 4.2 million and there may be 1.7 million deaths by the end of April.
The chaotic condition is an ultimate demonstration of the flaws of China’s COVID policy in the past two years. Under the “Zero COVID” policy, patients could only seek medical help and isolate in designated quarantine centres. Hospital patients who tested positive were transferred to other quarantine centres, while their rooms were closed and disinfected immediately after. Moreover, having been protected as bubbles, most hospitals lack experience and resources to handle large amounts of COVID and non-COVID patients simultaneously after the first outbreak in Wuhan.
Besides, many Chinese people now have almost no exposure and natural immunity to the virus due to the strict lockdown and quarantine regulations. The overall immunity to the virus of the population is further weakened by the ineffectiveness of the Sinovac vaccine and the low vaccination rate among the elderly. Despite Chinese society being poorly equipped for a complete removal of COVID restrictions, the government neither strengthened its medical capacity nor eased the restrictions step by step like the United Kingdom and Japan. Therefore, COVID cases surged drastically, and medical staff are now left to fight without enough resources.
"the lack of public trust towards the government may stir up another wave of protests which further accelerates the social instability"
In addition, it reveals the long-standing socio-political problems in China. The urban-focused economic reforms have led to uneven economic growth and distribution of medical resources between cities and rural areas. There are fewer doctors and large hospitals in rural areas, where residents in turn find it more difficult to seek medical help because of their low income. Thus, less developed regions like Liancheng County and Huailai County have expressed the pressing need for equipment, ranging from ambulances and electrocardiogram monitors. This unequal distribution and lack of resources further exacerbates the outbreak of the pandemic.
The lack of transparency in medical data also leads to further woe. The Chinese government does not thoroughly publicise crucial medical data, such as the number COVID cases, death toll and variant types. Most news reports and information on social media are under censorship, leading to low levels of reliability and accountability for official information. As a result, shocking photos of dead bodies piling in hospitals or empty chemists’ shelves on social media easily trigger immense fear among the public. Not only do Chinese inhabitants rush to stockpile medicines and food as was done in 2020, Chinese people overseas have also bulk-bought paracetamol and test kits for their families. In the long run, the lack of public trust towards the government may stir up another wave of protests which further accelerates the social instability.
The Lunar New Year is coming. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people headed home to reunite with their families before the recent wave of the disease. Despite the relaxation of travel restrictions, will people choose to stay away for the festivities given the increasing surge of cases? If not, will the massive influx of returning people further intensify the spread of COVID? Lunar New Year, the time of hope and family union, is going to pose major challenges and uncertainty to Chinese society. After all, everyone deserves good health, hope and joy in 2023.